On February 2, 2025, during the annual Groundhog Day ceremony.
Punxsutawney Phil, the world’s most famous groundhog, emerged from his cozy burrow this morning and saw his shadow—meaning we’re in for six more weeks of winter, according to tradition.
Every year on February 2, members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club gather at Gobbler’s Knob, where Phil makes his big weather call. The legend is simple: if he sees his shadow, winter sticks around; if not, spring comes early.
Of course, in reality, winter officially ends with the spring equinox on March 20 at 5:01 a.m. ET. But Mother Nature doesn’t always follow the calendar—and neither does Phil.
The furry forecaster has been making predictions since the late 1800s, though his accuracy isn’t exactly top-notch. Since 2005, he’s only been right about 35% of the time—about as good as flipping a coin. Last year, however, he nailed it when he called for an early spring, with February 2024 ranking as the third warmest on record for the Lower 48. March followed suit, staying well above normal temperatures.
For those looking for a more reliable forecast, meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center provide long-term outlooks for temperatures and precipitation across the U.S. Their latest projections suggest that February will bring above-average temperatures from the Rockies through the South and much of the East—hinting at an early spring. Meanwhile, colder-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest could mean winter sticks around a bit longer.
This winter has already been a tale of two halves. The eastern U.S. has endured rounds of brutal cold, with one of the coldest Presidential Inaugurations in 40 years and an unusually fierce snowstorm hitting the Gulf Coast. Many cities east of the Mississippi River are experiencing one of their ten coldest winters on record.
Out West, though, it’s been a different story. After the warmest fall on record for the Lower 48, cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco are seeing one of their top ten warmest winters.
Even when cold snaps hit, winters are getting warmer overall. In fact, winter has become the fastest-warming season for nearly 75% of the U.S., thanks to rising global temperatures.
So, while Phil might insist winter’s not done yet, in a world that’s heating up, his prediction may not hold up for much longer.
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